The Marvelsis set to be the only major wide release this weekend, and what would normally be a sure thing at the box office seems anything but that as the opening draws closer. With news that pre-sales are stagnant, subpar responses from test screenings, and the actor’s inability to promote the film due to the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strike, Marvel could be looking at one of its biggest financial disasters since its cinematic universe began its box office supremacy.
In 2019, whenCaptain Marvelwas released, it was able to survive some of the online toxicity from trolls being tossed at its star,Brie Larson. The movie was the last standalone Marvel film to be released beforeAvengers: Endgamewrapped up that current phase, so the Marvel hype was stronger than any of the fan discourse.
After opening to a staggering $153.4 million, the film went on to become the fifth-highest grossing of the year when it ended its global run with $1.1 billion. It also became thefirst female-led filmto achieve this feat, along with other records that were ultimately broken when all was said and done. A sequel to the film was inevitable, but Marvel could not have predicted the various obstacles that would stand in its way.
MCU Fatigue and Pre-Sales Indicate a Rough Start for The Marvels
The Marvels
The Marvelsis Marvel Studios' 33rd film in the MCU, and the golden touch they once had, while still something most studios would kill for, has shown signs of getting dull around the edges. Some films released sinceEndgamehave been greeted favorably, while others have been met with a more polarizing response.
Perhaps this is why the pre-sales forThe Marvelsare pacing behindBlack Adam($67 million opening) andThe Flash($55 million opening). Box office tracking originally had the sequel opening in the $80 million range, which would’ve been down considerably from the debut of the first film. However, that hasdeclined to $45-50 millionon the low end from updated tracking reports. This has made Marvel look a bit more vulnerable than usual, and there is some speculation in play as to why this is all happening.
The Marvels Will Make or Break the Future of the MCU
With Marvel Studios currently in crisis, The Marvels needs to succeed at the box office and restore the franchise to its former glory.
The SAG-AFTRA strike certainly isn’t helping matters. The union representing the actors is rightfully fighting for a fair deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, but a consequence of this fight is that actors can’t promote any struck work. That means Larson, Teyonah Parris,and Iman Vellani, the three leads ofThe Marvels, can’t make any appearances or do any interviews in support of the release.
The movie’s financial potential could improve considerably with their involvement since all the trailers for the movie showcase that they have solid chemistry with each other and could’ve been a lot of fun on the press junket circuit. In addition to that trio, Samuel L. Jackson is also returning as Nick Fury in the sequel, and it’s no secret that Jackson is a great time in interviews. Sure, director Nia DaCosta can make the rounds and do interviews to promote the release, but that lacks the same impact of having the film’s stars be front and center. Cinephiles will appreciate what DaCosta has to say about the making of the movie, but casual moviegoers are likely more interested in a celebrity face they are familiar with.
Then, there are the discussions ofThe Marvelsquality ahead of its launch and the release date changes. In February of this year, the movie was delayed until its current release date of Nov. 10. The reason given at the time was that Marvel was re-evaluating their content output and costs, news that droppedAnt-Man and the Wasp: Quantumaniawas met with mostly dismal reviews on its way to a soft box office finish by Marvel standards ($476 million globally on reported $200 million budget).
On paper, this seemed like a good move as it gaveThe Marvelsmore time in post-production to work on special effects, and the new date happens to be a holiday weekend (Veterans Day), which proved to work for 2022’sBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever($181.3 million opening). This also gotThe Marvelsout of the more crowded summer months, which means less competition. Had the SAG strike not occurred and gone much longer than most have anticipated, this could’ve been a prime time to openThe Marvels, but even withDune: Part Twovacating its release date, which was originally a week prior, the sequel can’t take full advantage of the perks of being a big tentpole on the November release schedule.
Mixed Reviews From a Public Test Screening Have Created Negative Buzz
A recent Variety reportalso made reference to a test screening held forThe Marvelsthat garnered mixed results. The public test screening took place in Texas back in June, and the fact that it was public was a pretty rare occurrence for a Marvel Studios release because they are known to limit early showings to Disney employees.
The audience response was described as “middling reviews,” which gives the impression that the film fell somewhere between good and bad based on their opinion. Even though the screening happened five months before the release ofThe Marvelsand Marvel Studios would have ample time to fix some of the problems that were of concern during the early watch, the Variety story already did its job of creating the noise that maybeThe Marvelsisn’t up to par. Once that begins, it’s hard to silence it.
The Marvels Officially Clocks in With Record-Breaking MCU Runtime
Disney confirmed The Marvels runtime will be the shortest in the MCU’s history, breaking a decade-long record.
There is also the case of Marvel releasing so much content that it’s hard to keep up for some audiences. Parris' Monica Rambeau, first introduced as a child inCaptain Marvel, made her first appearance as an adult in theDisney+ seriesWandaVision, released in 2021. The reception to that show was indeed positive, but there is a bit of a gap between her debut on that series and her return inThe Marvels.
Fans might wonder if they would have to revisitWandaVisionto fully understand and enjoy her presence in the Marvel sequel. That would take time that some fans might not have. The same goes for Vellani’s Kamala Kahn/Ms. Marvel. The young rising star earned raves for her energetic performance on her Disney+ miniseries, but it also reportedly had viewership that was thelowest figure of the Marvel streaming shows(775,000 households watching within the first five days of release). While the series did see a high among Gen Z, Black, Hispanic, and Asian households, the figures did show that it lacked the mainstream interest of some of their other projects.
Keep in mind,Ms. Marvelsets up the eventsofThe Marvels, so it feels like watching the show would be required viewing before seeing the movie, and again, that comes down to having the time to do so.
Another theory at play surrounding the film’s box office potential is the notion that most fans weren’t clamoring for a sequel toCaptain Marvel. For a film that cleared $1 billion at the global box office, it doesn’t have a sense of staying power as a cultural movement like some of the other MCU releases. A lot of the interest inCaptain Marvelcame from the build-up toEndgameand the anticipation of seeing how all of this was going to come together. It introduced Larson’s heroine as the deus ex machina that would play a part in defeating Thanos (Josh Brolin), but beyond that, the necessity ofCaptain Marvelas a film in 2023 has been called into question by some fans.
The price tag ofThe Marvelscomes in at $250 million without marketing costs, so there is a lot at stake forThe Marvelsto perform well financially. One has to wonder why Marvel Studios didn’t delay the film when it became clear the strike would not be over in time for the film’s release. Would it upset the schedule for their other releases too much? Did they think it would perform well without its stars being available to promote? Do they suspect they have a stinker, no matter what? It’s hard to tell. Should reviews come out positive when the embargo lifts this week, maybe that will turn the tide, but for now,The Marvelswill have a microscope on it as the industry watches to see if the once invincible Marvel Studios will see another financial misfire.
