There is no question that Disney’sStar Wars: The Last Jediwill be be a massivebox office hit, with analysts predicting a $200 million opening weekend at the domestic box office, but it’s shaping up to be an even bigger hit overseas as well. A new report reveals that Disney and LucasFilm are eyeing a roughly $225 million overseas opening weekend for a global opening weekend haul of $425 million. While that is far from the current record, it is among the top 5 of all time, and one of the biggest reasons it won’t contend for the record is that it won’t be opening in China right away.
Star Wars: The Force Awakensheld the all-time global opening weekend record of $529 million, including the domestic record of $248 million and the overseas debut of $281 million, for a year and a half, until Universal’sThe Fate of the Furiousbroke that record with an impressive $541.9 million, with 81.8% of that tally coming from overseas with an international opening weekend record of $443.2 million and a decent domestic debut of $93.8 million. IfStar Wars: The Last Jedi, which is shaping up to be a critical hit as well withglowing Last Jedi reviewssurfacing this morning, hits this projection, it will passBatman v Superman: Dawn of Justice($422.5 million) as the fifth best global opening weekend of all time, falling just behindHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2($483.2 million) in fourth place andJurassic World($525.5 million) in third place.
The biggest reason thatThe Fate of the Furiousposted such a massive international opening weekend was due to its incredible $184.9 million opening weekend, the biggest debut in Chinese history, behind the $182.4 million debut ofFurious 7. WhileStar Wars: The Force Awakens($52.3 million opening, $124.1 million total) andRogue One: A Star Wars Story($30 million debut, $69.4 million total) have fared well in China, both movies have opened in early January, and not at day-and-date with the rest of the world.The Last Jediopens in several international markets on December 13 and 14 with its entire global rollout complete by December 15, with the exception of China, which won’t debut until June 24, 2025 in the Middle Kingdom. While this delay in China certainly won’t be disastrous, it will be interesting to see how its confirmed status as thelongest Star Wars movieof all time will impact repeat viewing.
While Disney is certainly expecting both a critical and commercial hit withThe Last Jedi, they are also mounting anOscar campaign for Mark Hamill, for his performance as iconic Jedi Luke Skywalker. The studio is putting the movie in contention for all major awards, including Best Picture and Best Director, but it will be interesting to see if awards season voters will spark to this movie as much as the fans certainly have. WhileStar Warsmovies are largely nominated on the technical side of the Oscars, Alec Guinness was nominated for his performance as Obi-Wan Kenobi in the very firstStar Warsmovie, so there is a precedent in place.
All of the studios as a whole are likely hoping thatThe Last Jedi opening weekendis huge, because it’s basically the last chance to turn around a truly bizarre year at the box office, since the year-to-date totals are currently 4% behind last year’s record-breaking domestic box office total of $11.4 billion, and a big opening weekend could help close the gap, along with the final wide releases of the year that are being spread out over December 20 (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle,The Greatest Showman on Earth), December 22 (Downsizing,Pitch Perfect 3,Father Figures) and December 25 (All the Money in the World). The Hollywood Reporter broke the news on the global opening weekend projetion today.
