Following the massive success ofStar Wars: The Force AwakensandRogue One: A Star Wars Story, which are the highest-grossing movies of the past two years, it’s practically a sure thing thatStar Wars: The Last Jediwill be a massive box office hit. Still, many are wondering if this sequel will have what it takes to break the opening weekend record of $247.9 million, set byStar Wars: The Force Awakens, but the first box office projections reveal that it will likely fall well short of that mark. With just under two months away beforeThe Last Jedi hits theaters, these projections could surely change, but as of now, box office analysts don’t think it can breakThe Force Awakens' box office record.
These first box office projections indicate thatThe Last Jediwill take in approximately $215 million in its opening weekend, and $742 million throughout its domestic box office run. If this projection is valid,The Last Jediwill have the second highest opening weekend total in box office history, behindThe Force Awakens, while its domestic total would end up as the third-highest ever, behindAvatar($760.5 million) andThe Force Awakens($936.6 million). While this projection may be surprising, it actually falls in line with a pattern that has been established with both of the previousStar Wars trilogies.
Back in 1977, the originalStar Wars Movie,A New Hope, earned an impressive $307.2 million during its original theatrical run, with a lifetime total of $460.9 million including the Special Edition theatrical release. The 1980 sequelThe Empire Strikes Back, while considered by many fans to be the best of the original trilogy, suffered quite a considerable drop, earning $209.3 million in theaters, with a lifetime total of $290.4 million. The final installment of the original trilogy,Return of the Jedi, rebounded a bit, but it still didn’t surpass the first movie, taking in $252.5 million from the original run, with a lifetime total of $309.3 million.
The prequel trilogy followed the same pattern, with the divisive 1999 filmThe Phantom Menace, the firstStar Warsmovie in 16 years, becoming a huge hit, despite plenty of negative fan reaction, largely focused on the child actor who played the young Anakin Skywalker, Jake Lloyd, and the universally-hated characterJar Jar Binks.The Phantom Menaceearned $431 million in its initial run, with the second prequel movie,Attack of the Clones, dropping quite a bit to $302.1 million, while the trilogy finale,Revenge of the Sith, took in $380.2 million. It’s very possible that this same downward trend for the second movie in eachStar Warstrilogy could continue, with the third movie rebounding a bit, but not to the same level as the first movie.
One reason that may account for this movie’s decline are the longstanding rumors that this story is quite similar toEmpire Strikes Back, much like how many fans criticizedThe Force Awakensfor being too similar toA New Hope. Since there is still so much we don’t know about the story, we likely won’t know for sure how similarThe Last Jediis toThe Empire Strikes Backuntil this movie hits theaters on December 15. Hopefully we’ll find out more about this highly-anticipated movie over the next two months. These box office projections fromPro.BoxOffice.comare the first to come in, but hopefully we’ll have more projections soon.
