Watch a second of the 45th season ofSurvivorand you’ll quickly understand why the series is one of the longest running reality shows in television history. The real life conflict and drama from the show has propelled it from being a niche reality show to one ofthe most impactful piecesof modern television. With the 45th season in full swing, now is a perfect time to review this batch of contestants and see which ones are the most likely to win it all.

Here are our picks of the top contestants based on the likelihood of winning.

Kaleb Gebrewold wearing a tan shirt on the beach of Fiji in Survivor

12Kaleb Gebrewold

Occupation: Software Sales

At the bottom of the list isKaleb Gebrewold. This might be rather surprising considering Kaleb’s enthusiasm for the game. However, these types of players usually either end up being a disappointment or they ultimately fizzle out by the end.

Why They Can Win

Now, we aren’t saying there’s no chance that Kaleb could make a deep run. He is doing well enough that making it to the final tribal council is certainly within the realm of possibility. But from years of watching the show, we’ve noticed that these extroverted “golden retriever” types don’t usually get too far, as they often lack the cunning and skullduggery required to compete in a game likeSurvivor.

11Dee Valladares

Occupation: Entrepreneur

Speaking of eager contestants,Dee Valladaresis as enthusiastic as one can be. The 26-year-old entrepreneur is approaching the game with a cautious, no-quit mindset. So much so that she even ended up binge-watching the show in order to better prepare for the experience.

There’s no question that Dee is determined. And while this is commendable, we don’t really see her getting too far in the game. This is because we predict her struggling with the latter part of the game. Dee herself has admitted that she’s looking to play cautious early on, which could leave her as the odd person out when people have made their alliances.

Dee Valladares in Survivor

10Kendra McQuarrie

Occupation: Bartender

Kendra McQuarrieis a lively bartender from Colorado. She is quite the character and is sure to be a fan-favorite from the get-go. This isn’t really surprising, considering that her experience as a bartender has allowed her to hone her social skills, which lets her navigate even the trickiest social interactions with ease.

While being goofy and funny may be great for the audience, it won’t really be useful when it comes to getting far in the game. However, Kendra does seem to be quite physically capable which could net her some wins in the challenges. Some key wins there could help Kendra make a deep run in the game.

Kendra McQuarrie raising her hands in an interview on Survivor

9Emily Flippen

Occupation: Investment Analyst

Given her day job you would thinkEmily Flippenwould rank higher on a list of the best contestants of season 45. While competitive and analytic people seem to go far in the game, she has one thing holding her back — Emily seems to be a little too abrasive and might be picked off rather early for it.

Catching the ire of the other contestants is a death sentence inSurvivor. Emily may rub a lot of people the wrong way, which could send her packing right away. However, if she can manage to stick around, Emily undoubtedly has what it takes to be up there amongthe greatestSurvivorvillains.

Emily Flippen in Survivor

8Jake O’Kane

Occupation: Attorney

A 26-year-old attorney from Boston would theoretically rank higher on this list, butJake O’Kaneseems far too passive. And while this could help him last longer in the game, fortune favors the bold in the world ofSurvivor.

Playing it safe won’t be good enough if Jake wants to be the last person standing. Fence-sitting will only leave you alone and isolated from the rest of the contestants. While being cautious may help Jake make a deep run, he’ll have to be willing to take on more risks if he wants to win the game.

Jake O’Kane in Survivor

7Kellie Nalbandian

Occupation: Critical Care Nurse

Kellie Nalbandianis your prototypicalSurvivorcontestant. She is both athletic and logical, which will surely come in handy during the game. However, she also isn’t opposed to using her guile to get the better of the other contestants when the situation calls for it.

She also seems to be rather competent, which makes her a formidable ally. Perhaps Kellie’s best quality is that she seems to be able to get along with just about anyone. This will help her build alliances and allow her to stick around longer.

6Drew Basile

Occupation: Grad Student

Speaking of young players,Drew Basileis a 23-year-old grad student with something to prove. Being smart will only get you so far in this game, but Drew has the right strategic mind forSurvivorthat will undoubtedly take him far. Depending on his approach and the allies that he makes along the way, we can easily see Drew winning it all.

We’re sure that Drew is the type of player who can figure out the best move in any given situation. And while this could make him prone to overthinking, having the right allies could help him avoid this altogether.

5Julie Alley

Occupation: Estate Attorney

While you would think thatSurvivorwas a young person’s game,Julie Alleyis actually one of this season’s dark horse contenders. Her years of life experience will surely come in handy, as it will help her deal with any challenge the game throws at her. Given her successful career, it’s a good thingSurvivoractually compensatestheir contestants, so a long run may make this worth her while.

Why They Can WIn

Older players are often underestimated in the game ofSurvivor, and to underestimate Julie would be a grave mistake, as the 49-year-old estate attorney is quick-witted and has a good read on people. This makes her a fierce opponent, as she’ll be able to navigate the social conflicts that are at the heart of the game with ease.

4Sifu Alsup

Occupation: Gym Owner

Sifu Alsupis a 30-year-old gym owner whose sole goal in the game is to become the next Survivor. It’s hard not to like Sifu as he simply oozes positive energy. It’s obvious from the start that the other contestants like him a lot.

Sifu’s advantages are clear from the jump as he boasts a clear athletic advantage over most, if not all, the other contestants. What’s great about Sifu is he’s also a massive nerd. This means he can be underestimated, and can also strategize and be the shot-caller when needed. This combination of brains and brawn make him a serious threat in the contest.

3Katurah Topps

Occupation: Civil Rights Attorney

It’s hard not to putKaturah Toppsat the top of this list considering how strong of a contestant she is. She seems to be able to take control of just about any situation she finds herself in. She’s also a natural leader that people tend to gravitate towards. All of these things make her one of the biggest threats on the show.

If there’s one thing that sets Katurah apart, it’s her unparalleled determination. Her time as a civil rights lawyer is a testament to the kind of contestant Katurah will be, and she’s not one to back down from any challenge the game throws at her.