Will Pacific Rim 2 Finally Dethrone Black Panther at the Box Office?

Marvel’sBlack Panthermanaged to pull off the impossible again, fending off three newcomers (Tomb Raider,I Can Only Imagine, andLove, Simon) to take the top spot at the box office for the fifth weekend in a row with $26.6 million. This weekend,Black Pantherfaces its greatest challenge yet, with five new movies opening in wide release, with Universal’sPacific Rim Uprising, Paramount’sSherlock Gnomes, Open Road Films’Midnight Sun, Bleecker Street’sUnsaneand Sony’sPaul, Apostle of Christ. WhileBlack Panthermay still fare well and pull off a minimal decrease, we thinkPacific Rim Uprisingwill take the top spot with $26.4 million.

While most movies post greaterdeclines from weekend to weekendthe farther they get into theirBox Officerun,Black Pantherhas actually been improving from weekend to weekend, posting smaller decreases. After its record-breaking first weekend of $202 million last month, it dropped just 44.7% ($111.6 million) in its second weekend, 40.6% ($66.3 million) in its third weekend, 38.4% in its fourth weekend ($40.8 million) and 34.7% ($26.6 million) in itsfifth weekend. We’re predicting that it will still fare well, but the streak will come to a close, dropping a projected 40% in its sixth frame for $15.9 million.

Black Pantherhas aligned itself to be themovie to beat at the box officefor the rest of the year, with a domestic tally of $605 million and an additional $583.3 million from international markets for a worldwide total of $1.18 billion, from just five weeks in theaters. That international tally is even more impressive since it hasn’t exactly fared too well in China. While the movie put up asolid debut in the Middle Kingdom($65.1 million), it dropped a massive 81.5% in its second weekend and has earned $95.9 million, which is still the highest-grossing international market for the movie, but it is far below most Marvel movies.

We’re predicting that the top 5 will be rounded out byTomb Raider($14.6 million), newcomerSherlock Gnomes($11.6 million), a follow-up to 2011’sGnomeo and Juliet, andI Can Only Imagine($9.3 million), the faith-based movie that debuted last weekend with $17.1 million from just 1,627 theaters for a $10,513 per-screen average. We’re predicting the top 10 will be rounded out byA Wrinkle in Time($9.1 million),Midnight Sun($8.2 million),Love, Simon($7.6 million),Unsane($4.4 million) andPaul, Apostle of Christ($2.1 million).

Looking ahead to next weekend, Warner Bros. will roll outReady Player Onefrom director Steven Spielberg in wide release on Thursday, March 29, which will go up against Lionsgate’sTyler Perry’s Acrimonyand PureFlix’sGod’s Not Dead: A Light in the Darknessin wide release. Take a look at our top 10 projections below, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.